I still find a silver lining in the portfolio performance this past month, especially when you compare it to major indices like the S&P500 and NASDAQ, which were both negative on the month at -2%.

The chart below shows the outperformance from our portfolio compared to these indices. (U21665761 Return = Our Portfolio)

This slight outperformance may not look like much, but it reflects the resilience of the diversified investment strategy during this period of heightened market volatility with majority of capital in global equities.

June was a month of geopolitical noise + policy caution + market rotation.

Energy volatility and inflation risks dominated headlines, while AI/tech fundamentals stayed strong but faced profit-taking. Risks remain elevated around Middle East de-escalation sustainability and sticky inflation.

Best regards,
Logan Wilkins

I warned early that the Fed might stay tough longer than expected in a previous letter that I put out over a month ago. (link below) Expect rates to eventually come down and things to be okay long-term, but don’t assume the forward returns for the market going forward are going to be “up only” — there’s a growing risk of a summertime drop before a V-reversal recovery happens.

No position changes in the portfolio as of now, still 60% in global equities & 40% cash. Changes will be made if needed. Investors should prepare for possible volatility over the coming weeks/months.

Below is a charted forecast from institutional bank Goldman Sachs showing the historical forward returns for the S&P500 when there was a 3-month rally totaling 20% plus. History doesn’t always repeat but there are a few warning signs flashing at the moment.

In this email I will be looking at historical/previous IPO launches to get an average layout of the potential price path for the major IPO.

Before we look into SpaceX, I think looking at the general outlook of the broad market can tell us a lot as well.

General Outlook:

I view the 12-month outlook as bullish because of growth, fiscal policy, along with other data points that are likely to remain tailwinds throughout this inflation wave we are seeing. The next few months, however, may be volatile because the monetary policy cycle may become a headwind as investors are starting to sniff out potential interest rate hikes.

This upcoming week should determine a clear image if this thesis is correct or not. As we have the FED, now led by Kevin Warsh, meeting this upcoming Wednesday.

Scenario A: If Kevin Warsh turns out to be a hawk (tightening policy outlook), then it’s likely that the broad market correction can continue. If this is the correct route the markets take, then prepare for a summertime stock market crash followed by a vicious rebound leading SPX to $8,000 by year end a reasonable scenario.

Scenario B: If Kevin Warsh comes out as dovish (easing policy outlook), and can convince the rest of the FED to look through the current inflation pressures, the stock market bubble will continue to inflate to the upside from here.

Performance over the last 7 days for the portfolio is up 1%.

See the latest update to the portfolio holdings in the letter below.

SpaceX:

As far as the SpaceX IPO, the only statistical advantage you will be able to find this early is by comparing it to previous hot IPO’s when they initially launched.

Below I have 3 charts that take an average of the top large cap and hot IPO’s dating back to 2010. To express these charts in simple terms: on average, you can expect an IPO to remain slightly positive/flat for the first 4-5 weeks, followed by a “fade” downwards that averages in between -15% to -30% in just a few weeks.

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3.

As far as the longer-term outlook: on average, the price of a new IPO stock drops -55% within the first 12 months of launch, even for great businesses like the ones listed in this picture below.

If you plan to be a long-term holder of SpaceX, and if you are blessed with a -50% decline within the first year it may not be a bad “buy the dip” opportunity.

SpaceX can run its own race and does not have to follow the average path like all of these IPO’s listed above. Investors should remain cautious and know that nothing is a 100% certainty.

This strong performance reflects the resilience of the diversified investment strategy during this period of heightened market volatility with majority of capital in global equities.

Overall, May showed the markets ability to rally on earnings strength and AI tailwinds while monitoring geopolitical de-risking, though uncertainties around inflation, oil, and Middle East instability.

Also in May, global equities rose solidly despite these tensions from the US-Israel-Iran conflict, which began with major strikes in late February and saw a fragile ceasefire in early April. Markets recovered strongly as diplomatic efforts progressed, including US-Iran talks on a potential 60-day truce extension, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear discussions—though incidents and Israeli actions in Lebanon kept risks elevated.

Strong corporate earnings provided major support, with Q1 2026 S&P 500 results showing 84% of companies beating their earnings estimates (well above historical averages) led by technology and AI-related sectors.

We remain focused on navigating these dynamics with a long-term perspective, maintaining balanced exposure that has served the portfolio well. Please let me know if you have any questions.

Best regards,
Logan Wilkins

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The FED, Bank of China, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan appear set to contribute to bond market volatility in the coming weeks and months. Also a FED “catch-up” trade - or an extended closure of the Straight of Hormuz - would be supportive of the US Dollar. This outcome would be negative for risk assets over the short to medium term.

Below is a charted forecast from institutional bank Goldman Sachs showing the forward returns for the S&P for 3 month rallies totaling 20% +.

In the worst case scenario: bonds recently selling off signal tighter financial conditions ahead. This could mirror late-2021, which proceeded a 25% drop in the S&P500 and a 75% drop in Bitcoin. However, this scenario is very forward looking. Our systematic approach would allow us to exit the markets well before if something like this were to become a base case.

Most important chart I am watching as of right now:

The first being US 30 Year Yields at the 5% level. (Yields and Bonds are inter-connected)

As you can see, going back to late 2023, everytime the 30 year yields have been at or close to the 5% level, the U.S. has implemented “yield curve control” which effectively is a way of printing money (devaluing the US Dollar) to push the yields down. Yield curve control often allows assets to rise, so to see the yields get pushed down to sub 5% would be a positive.

Copper futures just printed a new all-time high. The same investors I like to follow, including Stanley Druckenmiller publicly confirmed he owns the metal because “there’s no meaningful supply coming for the next eight years” with AI as the accelerant.

The natural follow-up in this cycle should be uranium. Nuclear has been ignored for 20+ years, leaving the entire $200 billion industry on the back-burner. Uranium is roughly 1/46th the size of oil & gas, and quietly supplies 20% of U.S. electricity as the most reliable baseload power source on the grid.

That is changing fast: AI power demand is now so obvious the Department of Energy is calling it out now as well, Washington just invoked the Defense Production Act to treat domestic nuclear fuel as a national-security priority, and a structural supply deficit that cannot be fixed on any tradeable timeline has pushed spot uranium higher, but still well below the incentive price needed for new supply. The $URA ETF gives broad narrative exposure.

Copper was the first leg I took. Uranium feels like the clean second-act complement—same supercycle, different part of the energy-metal stack.

For anyone with a longer time horizon (think 3–5+ years), these two fit naturally into a portfolio because they give you direct exposure to the physical backbone of the AI megatrend. Both have multi-year supply shortages baked in, so the upside is structural rather than cyclical.

They act as a real-asset hedge while the rest of the market chases software and financial assets. Volatility is part of the commodity game, but if you’re patient and sized appropriately, the reward/risk skew is compelling: you’re owning the picks-and-shovels that are likely to power the next decade of growth. As always, use appropriate systems for both of these.

Here’s a slightly longer version of me and why I am starting this:

I’m 23, and I’ve been self-directing every dollar of my capital since I was 18. No Wall Street internships or Ivy League network. Just someone who loves the game and learned early that the only way forward is to get in the game and stay in it.

Years ago in middle school my dad lent me $400 to buy and resell sneakers. I turned that into a bit of a side hustle that I ran all the way through my senior year of high school — and I actually did pretty well with it. When I got to college on a basketball scholarship, the sneaker inventory became too much to manage from a dorm room, so I started looking for the next thing. That’s when I discovered options trading in the stock market. After my first attempt was a complete failure and lost all of my money, I tried multiple startups and business models. Every single one of them failed. I worked summer jobs between my freshman and sophomore years, rebuilt my capital from scratch, and decided to give it another shot. This time a little different: long nights, early mornings, many books, charts, and lessons. I was fortunate to connect with several great mentors I still talk to today.

I’ve traded just about every instrument and strategy you can think of — stocks, crypto, commodities, options, futures, perpetuals, value arbitrage, pairs trading — and when I look back at it all I learned two major lessons.

First, every single challenge brought me closer to God. In the tough seasons when it felt like nothing was working, my faith became the anchor I needed to always make it out. I truly believe everything I have today — every lesson, every opportunity, every blessing — is because of God alone. Without His grace, mercy, and perfect timing, none of this would be possible. He’s the reason I’m still here and still pushing.

Second, I learned the power of persistence. I often think of the line from Paul Tudor Jones, a trader I deeply look up to: “When the going gets tough, the tough get going.” It’s like boxing — you throw a few jabs here and there just to measure your distance, and sometimes it takes years to land the liver shot that delivers the knockout. If you never quit, never give in, and stay persistent, the tables eventually turn in your favor. You just have to still be standing when they do.

The difficulty for success is constant. It is the balance that anyone who wants to “pull it off” must understand. My entire markets career has been one of relentless iteration — exactly what most serious traders/investors go through but rarely talk about openly.

Today I run a pretty evenly split portfolio that has averaged 20-25% annual returns since 2018 with very little drawdown. The wins feel earned, and I give God all the glory for every step.

For the longest time I’ve run private groups and chatrooms where I’ve shared market analysis and even managed money for a few people. It was rewarding, but managing others’ capital in an unstructured way eventually became more of a headache than I wanted at the time. So I withdrew every single person’s funds and profits, made sure everyone walked away happy, and continued providing market analysis for many of them.

Creating this Substack gives me a clean, structured way to share the exact same level of transparency and analysis I was already giving in those private rooms — while opening the door to meet way more like-minded people who are serious about the game.

This strong performance reflects the resilience of the diversified investment strategy during this period of heightened market volatility with majority of capital in global equities.

Markets showed some strength despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, as corporate earnings—particularly in technology and AI-driven sectors—supported a broad recovery and new record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Over the past month, the dominant story remained developments in the U.S. and Israel-led conflict with Iran that began in late February. A ceasefire was announced in early April (April 7–8), brokered in part by Pakistan, which briefly eased oil supply fears tied to the Strait of Hormuz. But shortly after talks stalled, allowing the U.S. to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports around April 13. This kept oil prices elevated and created volatility, though many efforts and Iranian proposals for reopening the strait continued into late April without full resolution. Fights persisted throughout the region with Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Despite these headwinds, investor optimism around potential de-escalation and strong fundamentals drove U.S. equities higher for the month.

We remain focused on navigating these dynamics with a long-term perspective, maintaining balanced exposure that has served the portfolio well. Please let me know if you have any questions.

Best regards,
Logan Wilkins

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