The SpaceX Debut
June 14th, 2026
Now that the SpaceX IPO has been priced into the markets by launching this past Friday, what does this mean for SpaceX and the broad stock market as a whole?
In this email I will be looking at historical/previous IPO launches to get an average layout of the potential price path for the major IPO.
Before we look into SpaceX, I think looking at the general outlook of the broad market can tell us a lot as well.
General Outlook:
I view the 12-month outlook as bullish because of growth, fiscal policy, along with other data points that are likely to remain tailwinds throughout this inflation wave we are seeing. The next few months, however, may be volatile because the monetary policy cycle may become a headwind as investors are starting to sniff out potential interest rate hikes.
This upcoming week should determine a clear image if this thesis is correct or not. As we have the FED, now led by Kevin Warsh, meeting this upcoming Wednesday.
Scenario A: If Kevin Warsh turns out to be a hawk (tightening policy outlook), then it’s likely that the broad market correction can continue. If this is the correct route the markets take, then prepare for a summertime stock market crash followed by a vicious rebound leading SPX to $8,000 by year end a reasonable scenario.
Scenario B: If Kevin Warsh comes out as dovish (easing policy outlook), and can convince the rest of the FED to look through the current inflation pressures, the stock market bubble will continue to inflate to the upside from here.
Performance over the last 7 days for the portfolio is up 1%.
See the latest update to the portfolio holdings in the letter below.
SpaceX:
As far as the SpaceX IPO, the only statistical advantage you will be able to find this early is by comparing it to previous hot IPO’s when they initially launched.
Below I have 3 charts that take an average of the top large cap and hot IPO’s dating back to 2010. To express these charts in simple terms: on average, you can expect an IPO to remain slightly positive/flat for the first 4-5 weeks, followed by a “fade” downwards that averages in between -15% to -30% in just a few weeks.
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As far as the longer-term outlook: on average, the price of a new IPO stock drops -55% within the first 12 months of launch, even for great businesses like the ones listed in this picture below.
If you plan to be a long-term holder of SpaceX, and if you are blessed with a -50% decline within the first year it may not be a bad “buy the dip” opportunity.
SpaceX can run its own race and does not have to follow the average path like all of these IPO’s listed above. Investors should remain cautious and know that nothing is a 100% certainty.